Hi,

TCurren:

I hear and see people shifting to FCP constantly, I don't see any going the other way.

Well, sure.  If Avid were right a few years ago that 80-something percent of television shows and films were edited using Avids, then that leaves only about 20-something percent of projects on systems that are not Avids.  So you (the collective you, not just Terry) shouldn't expect to see people switching to Avid because almost everybody was already using Avid.

Of course, Avid has work to do marketing-wise, but I don't think anecdotal evidence of Avid shops switching to FCP is necessarily the best way to determine what's happening in the marketplace.

adios,
Carl

p.s.  I want some sort of Avid Forum Vocabulary Award for using both "ubiquity" and "anectodal" in one post.

I see the marketing issue as the major problem for Avid. Folks on another list I frequent think I'm crazy saying Avid will be out of the NLE market soon. But take a look at this from a business perspective. (And with shareholders, Avid is definitely a business)

Last year they dropped pricing on the MC line by more than half.

Last week they dropped pricing on the DS line by more than half.

If EVERY single Avid user bought a new system, the company's NLE revenues would be half of what they used to be. No matter what business you are in, that is a MAJOR problem.

So what are their options?

Cut expenses by half? There goes the R&D folks.

At minimum, double their market share? This is where marketing comes in. If last week's DS event was their idea of how to double their market share, the game is over for them.

Increase the frequency of system replacement? This means they need to get you to buy a new NLE from them about every two years.

Of course they could use some combination of all three, but it would have to be a major effort on all fronts.

There is another option, they need to go to new markets. By putting MC in the same market segment as Premiere and FCP, Avid can expand their sales. AXP was not realy standing up against Premiere.

That's the "double their market share" option from above.

How are they going to do that with the marketing they have now?

TCurren:

That's the "double their market share" option from above.

How are they going to do that with the marketing they have now?

 No, I talk about double the sales of MC, not double the market share. It is very different things. The Premiere/FCP market is larger than the traditional market, so even a small share of that market can compensate for the lower prices.

TCurren:

I see the marketing issue as the major problem for Avid. Folks on another list I frequent think I'm crazy saying Avid will be out of the NLE market soon. But take a look at this from a business perspective. (And with shareholders, Avid is definitely a business)

See - you totally get it.  And all the people that think you are crazy for those claims are the same people Avid hires for their marketing department. 

Any student of history will tell you that the denial of the facts and a false assurance built from past success are the beginnings of the downward progression of any organization.

At this point I'd like to see Microsoft purchase Avid - that is the only way Avid will exist into the future. 

I understand the 'sky is falling' claims, but I think we've been seeing improvements from Avid in their outreach and marketing - but at the same time I hope they don't think they've done enough.

But as a case in point, go to the CreativeCow forums, the FCP ones, or Avid ones, or many others. In all the thread pages there is often a big Avid DX banner at the top of the main content area. And dear I say it, forums like the Cow are the home turf of those who feel that FCP is the Silver Bullet of NLEs. To be reaching back to that market with messages like "Love at first click" is a good move I think.

But maybe it's time that Avid got a little more aggressive with the Indie's and small producers - get some full pages in whatever magazines they read.

I don't think Avid is going away anytime soon. I think their 'New Thinking' is the right approach, but they'd better not stop and just dropping the price and putting out a press release, they need to make sure everyone who might want to cut some video together knows about it. They know that Avid, the software that the Studios and Networks turn to, is available for them.

TCurren:

If EVERY single Avid user bought a new system, the company's NLE revenues would be half of what they used to be. No matter what business you are in, that is a MAJOR problem.

I don't think that is really accurate. Not every Avid user buys a new Avid system everytime it comes out. How many Meridian seats are still operating? What about Xpress - it was a low-profit product that would have accounted for a lot of sales. People I know are not just upgrading their existing systems now that MC is cheaper, they're getting new ones.

Sycophant:

Not every Avid user buys a new Avid system everytime it comes out. How many Meridian seats are still operating?

True, but in the case of Meridien that is due to Adrenaline being such a dog.

But how many more Symphonies are they selling at 36K vs. 90K? And are those lost MC sales?

How many more MC soft systems are they selling at 2.5K to make up for the systems they used to sell at 10K? (Mojo)

They aren't selling FCP numbers of applications, but they will need to if they want to continue making a profit at lower prices. OR:

Give us value added and make it damn well known. How many FCP users realize that they could get multiple streams of HD in RT out of Symphony?

But Terry if Avid had kept its old prices it would be dead in 18 months from now less if Final Cut Studio 3 comes out even sooner.

Avid shareholders may have to accept the good money making days are over, never to return.

However i must say i am interested in buying an Avid DS now the price has come down to a point which seems a far better deal than a Symphony which is a huge price to pay just for a better colour corrector over MC3 DX

But then my worry is if i pay $60000 for a DS will Apple release a killer FCP studio3 the next day for a $999 upgrade fee, yikes, all of which buying nothing for now seems attractive!

I have never been so confused about this business as i am now.

A perfect example of the lack of Avid's marketing. You should be dying to buy a DS at 60K.

Why aren't you? Because Apple might come out with a better FCP?

I can tell you right here and now that FCP is SO far behind what DS can do in a high end environment that it will not catch up for a LONG time. That is why Autodesk and Quantel have gone way out of their way to make FCP's XMLs work well in their world. That is not Apple's market.

On the other hand, if you can afford to wait for renders, and you don't need complex media management, you can save a boatload of bucks buying FCP. Or Adobe for that matter.

So what does Avid have to do to convince you to plop down your green for a DS right now? That is what this thread is about.

 Now this is becomming a great thread...

So what does Avid have to do to convince you to plop down your green for a DS right now? That is what this thread is about.

Not a lot we are now running the financial numbers through our business plan so it is a good example of Avid cutting its price to find new customers, however a few demo video's on this website would not go amiss!

In defense of FCP if it was not for Apple and FCP we would not have been able to build a business debt free to progress to an Avid DS so that is an example of FCP expanding the PRO editing market as it enabled editors to go off and set up on their own and progress to higher end kit when it makes business sense.

TCurren:

A perfect example of the lack of Avid's marketing. You should be dying to buy a DS at 60K.

 

Why aren't you? Because Apple might come out with a better FCP?

 

I can tell you right here and now that FCP is SO far behind what DS can do in a high end environment that it will not catch up for a LONG time. That is why Autodesk and Quantel have gone way out of their way to make FCP's XMLs work well in their world. That is not Apple's market.

 

On the other hand, if you can afford to wait for renders, and you don't need complex media management, you can save a boatload of bucks buying FCP. Or Adobe for that matter.

 

So what does Avid have to do to convince you to plop down your green for a DS right now? That is what this thread is about.

Terry and I rarely agree, but I am with him 100% on this one.  Great post Terry.

sw

switthaus:

Terry and I rarely agree, but I am with him 100% on this one.  Great post Terry.

     It just snowed in hell. ;-)